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ETF Junkie Blog

We're still LIT

5/6/2017

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LIT, the Lithium ETF, has been doing well this year since it broke out from its multiple cup and handle's.  It executed a nice throwback to test and then rallied some more to reach it's first target from the small cup and handle.  We might see LIT close the gap before regaining momentum and rallying into the lower to mid 30s.   Don't forget to subscribe to the letter if you haven't yet over on the right hand side.  There may not be frequent updates on the website, but the letter goes out frequently trading guidelines and thoughts on various sectors.
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Time to get LIT!

1/12/2017

2 Comments

 
Is it time to buy lithium?  Judging by the price action now is a great time to buy LIT after breaking out from not one, but two, cup and handle formations for a long term target of 34.87.​


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Remember to subscribe to the ETF Junkie Newsletter over on the right side of the page.
2 Comments

List of 3x Leveraged ETFs

1/7/2017

1 Comment

 
Below is an updated list of 3x leveraged ETFs that I use in order to trade.  I eliminated all ETFs from the list I had last year that have extremely low volume and also removed ETFs that were discontinued through the year like UWTI and DWTI.
​


A B C D
1
3x ETF Symbol
Recent Vol.
Underlying ETF
2
Direxion 20 year Treasury Bear 3x ETF TMV 1,296,290 TLT
3
Direxion 20 year Treasury Bull 3x ETF TMF 706,106 TLT
4
Direxion Daily Biotech Bear 3x ETF LABD 2,894,240 XBI
5
Direxion Daily Biotech Bull 3x ETF LABU 2,521,020 XBI
6
Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 3x ETF BRZU 710,103 EWZ
7
Direxion Daily China Bear 3x ETF YANG 614,169 FXI
8
Direxion Daily China Bull 3x ETF YINN 1,207,600 FXI
9
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3x ETF DUST 10,375,700 GDX
10
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3x ETF NUGT 93,337,800 GDX
11
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3x ETF CURE 141,652 XLV
12
Direxion Daily India Bull 3x ETF INDL 58,147 PIN
13
Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Bear 3x ETF JDST 12,188,900 GDXJ
14
Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Bull 3x ETF JNUG 58,993,800 GDXJ
15
Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bull 3x ETF GASL 92,426 FCG
16
Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3x ETF RETL 76,461 XRT
17
Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3x ETF RUSS 811,012 RSX
18
Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3x ETF RUSL 189,164 RSX
19
Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. Bear 3x ETF DRIP 639,379 XOP
20
Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. Bull 3x ETF GUSH 201,357 XOP
21
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x ETF SOXS 533,718 SMH
22
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x ETF SOXL 235,511 SMH
23
Direxion Emerging Markets Bear 3x ETF EDZ 1,026,500 EEM
24
Direxion Emerging Markets Bull 3x ETF EDC 277,261 EEM
25
Direxion Energy Bear 3x ETF ERY 943,559 XLE
26
Direxion Energy Bull 3x ETF ERX 1,730,280 XLE
27
Direxion Financials Bear 3x ETF FAZ 1,683,670 XLF
28
Direxion Financials Bull 3x ETF FAS 3,479,840 XLF
29
Direxion Mid Cap Bull 3x ETF MIDU 52,785 IWR
30
Direxion Real Estate Bear 3x ETF DRV 146,763 VNQ
31
Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x ETF DRN 253,503 VNQ
32
Direxion S&P 500 Bear 3x ETF SPXS 2,155,610 SPY
33
Direxion S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF SPXL 801,024 SPY
34
Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x ETF TZA 8,994,240 IWM
35
Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x ETF TNA 2,799,770 IWM
36
Direxion Technology Bear 3x ETF TECS 53,871 XLK
37
Direxion Technology Bull 3x ETF TECL 89,574 XLK
38
ProShares UltraPro 20 Year Treasury Bear3x ETF
TTT 54,770 TLT
39
ProShares UltraPro DJIA Bear 3x ETF SDOW 1,568,180 DIA
40
ProShares UltraPro DJIA Bull 3x ETF UDOW 385,251 DIA
41
ProShares UltraPro Gold Miners Bear 3x ETF GDXS 63,308 GDX
42
ProShares UltraPro Gold Miners Bull 3x ETF GDXX 73,060 GDX
43
ProShares UltraPro NASDAQ Biotech Bull 3x ETF
UBIO 179,441 XBI
44
ProShares UltraPro Nasdaq-100 Bear 3x ETF SQQQ 5,866,350 QQQ
45
ProShares UltraPro Nasdaq-100 Bull 3x ETF TQQQ 1,274,580 QQQ
46
ProShares UltraPro Russell 2000 Bear 3x ETF SRTY 656,412 IWM
47
ProShares UltraPro Russell 2000 Bull 3x ETF URTY 177,500 IWM
48
ProShares UltraPro S&P500 Bear 3x ETF SPXU 3,023,220 SPHY
49
ProShares UltraPro S&P500 Bull 3x ETF UPRO 1,960,860 SPY
50
VelocityShares Gold Bear 3x ETN DGLD 55,579 GLD
51
VelocityShares Gold Bull 3x ETN UGLD 717,588 GLD
52
VelocityShares Natural Gas Bear 3x ETN DGAZ 52,504,600 UNG
53
VelocityShares Natural Gas Bull 3x ETN UGAZ 12,888,600 UNG
54
VelocityShares Silver Bear 3x ETN DSLV 59,789 SLV
55
VelocityShares Silver Bull 3x ETN USLV 2,830,530 SLV
Remember to subscribe to the ETF Junkie Newsletter over on the right side of the page.
1 Comment

List of Best ETF Newsletters

1/7/2017

0 Comments

 
List of Best ETF Newsletters:


Number 1: ETF Junkie.  Do I say this out of hubris? Perhaps. But if you look at other ETF trading newsletters, you’ll see that they love to boast just their winners and never give you the details of their trading history.  If you look on their websites, it’s nothing but winners, yet they don’t show an annualized return.  With the ETF Junkie, it’s easy to follow and the returns are tracked and published in each newsletter.

The ETF Junkie is also fantastic in that we send out trading ideas in the evening so that you have plenty of time to put in the trades. This way you don’t have to be monitoring your email every minute in case there’s a last minute trade that you can’t execute because you have a life to live.

All others are charlatans.  I have looked at these jokers and they always bring up their good trades, but don’t keep track of how well their overall trade strategy would work. They also tell you to buy here, but in what size?  Where do you get out?  What kind of position sizing do you do?



The others:

Morpheus Trading Group:
They seem to have good trades according to their free email they send out, but it’ll cost you more than $700 a year to get their trades in real time. Who knows if you’ll be free to trade their ideas when they send out their emails.  

ActiveTradingPartners.com:
These guys say you can “trade like a pro” for $116 dollars a month. Whatever Bud.  Why don’t you trade with a Pro at the ETF Junkie. I trade the positions alongside you.  

Morningstar ETFInvestor Newsletter:
This is a Monthy Newsletter that costs $200 a year? Any information given once a month is going to be stale and not really actionable.  Buying an index fund and sitting on it is better that wasting money on this not so “Newsletter”.

Doug Fabian:
Doug offers a more reasonably priced newsletter and gives you the entry and exit points which is nice, but he’s reckless with his stops.  Let’s look at Fabian’s current open trades taken from the website at the end of 2016:
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First, all three are losing positions. Second, he gives you entry and exit prices, which is nice, but there’s no position sizing.  But the coup d’grace are the stops are ridiculously far away from entry and leave you open to huge losses. Looking at his first trade of SILJ, if it gets stopped out you are going to lose over 27%?  That’s serious money.  You want to trade with a pro who keeps his losses much smaller than that.

ETFSwingtrader.net:
First, if you can’t get the .com on your name it’s suspect.  Second, $79 a month is a ridiculous price to pay for something that doesn’t show their results.  $10 less and it would be kinky.

Clearly, the ETF Junkie is the best place to go for trading ETFs, not only because of the returns, but because I’m not afraid to talk about my competitors. They clearly don’t show the same confidence.
Remember to subscribe to the ETF Junkie Newsletter over on the right side of the page.


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ETF Junkie newsletter year in review

12/31/2016

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ETF Junkie

Year End Summary 2016

The ETF Junke had a great 2016 finishing up 22.52% beating the S&P 500 (using SPY’s #’s) by 10.5% whose total return was up 12% for the year.  We had a total of 40 trades open and closed in 2016.  (LABD  is still working with half of the position closed up 12.8%)  

Of the positions that were closed, 24 trades were losers & 16 winners, and currently, we have 3 open trades which are all winners at the moment.

Trade Date

Symbol

Shares

avg cost

total cost

Last Price

mkt value

P&L

% P&L

CASH

1

$26,265.06

1

$26,265.06

11/17/2016

LABD

1200

14.75

$17,704.50

18.95

$22,740.00

$5,035.50

28.44%

12/27/2016

TZA

1830

19.31

$35,346.30

19.85

$36,325.50

$979.20

2.77%

12/29/2016

SOXS

3450

10.47

$36,112.50

10.78

$37,191.00

$1,078.50

2.99%


Biggest % winner:

GUSH was our biggest percentage winner on the year with a portion of our position making 116%.  Unfortunately, this position was a small 10% of our portfolio and only 5% of the portfolio enjoyed the 116% gain, the other 5% gained “only” 40.16%.

Trade Date

Symbol

Shares

avg cost

total cost

Closing price

mkt value

P&L

% P&L

Date Closed

3/2/2016

GUSH

145

34.6

$5,021.50

74.9

$10,851.50

$5,830.00

116.10%

5/3/2016

Held for 62 days. This is half of the position w/ first half closed out

3/2/2016

GUSH

1,450

3.46

$5,021.50

4.86

$7,038.00

$2,016.50

40.16%

3/7/2016

Held 5 days

Biggest Dollar winner:

Our LABD trade from 9/29 was our biggest money maker for 2016, making $21,206.65 on a large exposure trade.

9/29/2016

LABD

1435

16.4

$23,538.50

23.1

$33,139.50

$9,601.00

40.79%

10/17/2016

9/29/2016

LABD

1435

16.4

$23,538.50

24.49

$35,144.15

$11,605.65

49.30%

11/08/2016

Biggest % Loser:

One of 3 times we tried to time the bottom of Natural Gas, which all failed. On January 8th, we bought 5% of our portfolio into UGAZ and lost 27.37% in less than a week. If we held the position into the rally in the spring, we still wouldn’t have made it back to break even. It was only a small position so the damage wasn’t too bad.

Trade Date

Symbol

Shares

avg cost

total cost

Closing price

mkt value

P&L

% P&L

Date Closed

1/8/2016

UGAZ

1,850

2.73

$5,059.50

1.99

$3,674.50

-$1,385.00

-27.37%

1/14/2016

Biggest $ loser:

Our biggest dollar loser comes from a trade in May where we had a large position in TZA that was too generous with the stop.

5/17/2016

TZA

686

43.76

$30,028.36

36.49

$25,023.14

-$5,005.22

-16.67%

6/1/2016

More stats:

The position held for the longest period was GUSH, which was held for 62 days.  The shortest hold was for one day and it is held by three positions: TNA from January, UGAZ and LABU from January. Obviously, these were all closed out for a loss. On average the hold period was 13 days for our trades in 2016.

Lessons Learned:

The second half of 2016 was definitely better for the Junkies than the first half. In the beginning of the year I was a little to active trying to force trades because I thought I had to be more active writing the Junkie on a regular basis.  The best course of action as a trader and for the Junkies is to wait for trades to materialize that fit criteria instead of forcing it, and not being as generous with the stops.  If a trade goes against you a little, it’ll most likely go against you a lot so it’s best to cut your losses early.  This is well know, but putting into practice proved true in the second half where we had our best performance.

Also, a lot of our worst performing trades were in the commodity sector with trades in Oil and Natural Gas.  There is too much geopolitical risk in the trades with OPEC and other entities able to manipulate the markets at their whim.  Sticking to stocks (even energy stocks) proves to be less volatile and easier to trade with my preferred strategies.

Finally, as proven by our results, every trade doesn’t have to be a winner as long as you cut your losses early. Shit, you can have a positive year while also having more than half of your trades be losers.

We are starting the year off on a good foot with 3 profitable trades. Here’s to a great 2017 Junkies.

Remember to subscribe to the ETF Junkie Newsletter over on the right side of the page.
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    Brad Price, the founder of ETF Junkie, has more than 15 years experience trading the markets.

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